Day after day, poll after poll, we are hearing the same thing again and again. Biden is leading, Trump’s numbers are going down. His bad handling of the coronavirus crisis will get him out of the White House.
If we take a look at the polls on a national level, in the past few months there is only ONE poll from Jun 3–5 that predicts Trump victory. And in that ONE poll Trump leads with just 1 percent point (48% vs 47%).
All of the other polls predict Biden victory in November. The thing is, Biden is leading in the national polls all the time.
This is a graph showing the standing of both candidates in national polls since September 2019.
As you can see, Trump came closer to Biden at the beginning of 2020, but the blue and the red line continued to recede from the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
Now, they are further away than ever before.
This is really good news for Biden supporters, right? They can be calm and just wait for November for the great victory?
Well, let’s roll back and go to 2016. It’s not that far away in history.
This is a graph from the polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight which shows the last 5 months that preceded the election.
It’s a quite familiar picture. Hillary Clinton was leading in the polls all the time. We were hearing the same thing again and again. Donald Trump didn’t stand a chance. He would win only in a parallel universe. And maybe just possibly, not even then.
And as you can see, we are in the final year of the first term of the Hilary Clinton presidency.
It’s not over till it’s over.
The numbers from the polls doesn’t mean a single thing if people don’t vote.
You can like your candidate, you can post about your candidate on Facebook, you can put a sticker on your car, but if you don’t go out and vote, it’s all for nothing. It’s what happens on the polling stations that matters.
And have in mind that out of the 45 US presidents who have been in the White House, only 10 of them have failed to win re-election for a second term!
It’s quite simple. Don’t listen to polls.
If you like Donald Trump and you think that he is doing a good job for the country, go out and vote for him in November. And if you like Joe Biden and you think that he will do a better job for the country, go out and vote for him in November.